“I buried four of my children. I’m still searching for the other three.” Those were the words of Farida Auwalu, the only surviving member of a 16-person household in Mokwa, Niger State. The flood came before dawn, but it didn’t creep in like a thief, it stormed in like a war. And by the time the sun rose, over 150 lives had been lost. The bodies of mothers, fathers, traders, and students were swept into the Niger River, along with debris of people’s homes and community bridges. And with them, any illusion that Nigeria still had time.
Now, as the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) forecasts another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms across nearly every region of the country, the warnings feel less like predictions and more like countdowns. From Monday through Wednesday, NiMet expects a volatile mix of cloudy skies, isolated thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy rainfall across states in the North, Central Belt, and South. Even the Federal Capital Territory is on watch.
However, this isn’t a thing we are unfamiliar with; the clouds gather, the experts speak, and the people drown. Again.
Forecasts Are Loud, But Action Is Quiet
The flooding in Mokwa wasn’t some unexpected twist of fate. It followed intense rainfall that began around 3am. By sunrise, the damage was staggering: over 3,000 people displaced, more than 265 houses destroyed, two bridges washed away, and scores of people missing.
Meanwhile, Bayelsa State is already bracing for the worst. According to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), seven out of Bayelsa’s eight local governments are projected to flood this rainy season and it’s not just Mokwa or Bayelsa. NiMet has warned that at least 15 states, from Niger to Rivers to Borno, are at high flood risk between now and August.
These forecasts are backed by scientific models, climate data, and past experience. The rainy season is here with August fast approaching, yet most communities are just hoping they’ll be lucky.
From Bayelsa to Niger, Everyone’s Getting Wet
Bayelsa is described as the worst hit every year, not by accident, but by geography. Entire communities sit below sea level, hemmed in by rivers. And in Niger State, Mokwa isn’t just some quiet village; it’s a major link between Nigeria’s North and South. When Mokwa floods, supply chains break. People can’t trade. Motorists are stranded. The economy stalls.
But even more personal than lost transport routes is the emotional wreckage. Survivors like Farida are left with pain that doesn’t go away when the water dries.
Lagos isn’t exempt either. A recent viral video showed rising water levels creeping beneath the Third Mainland Bridge, stirring fresh concern. And honestly, if you ask any Lagosian, they would agree that it sometimes feels safer to paddle a canoe than hail a cab during the rainy season, especially if you’re heading to or from the islands.
Every Year We Predict It, Yet Every Year, We’re Unprepared
Experts have been clear: climate change is intensifying Nigeria’s rains. The amount of water expected over a year now falls in just two months. Yet, our cities are not designed for it. Drainage systems are clogged with trash, buildings rise on floodplains. And year after year, warnings go unheeded.
Even when local authorities issue relocation orders, many residents stay put, not because they want to, but because they have nowhere else to go. So people die in places that were already marked red on a flood risk map.
We Actually Have a Plan, We Just Don’t Follow It
NEMA has a climate-related risk management strategy for 2025. NiMet’s forecasts are released regularly, with clear regional breakdowns. And as we saw in Yenagoa’s Tombia community, awareness campaigns do help. There are models that work.
Imagine if every local government took those forecasts seriously. If drainage was cleared in April, not in panic. If buildings blocking water paths were removed, not ignored. We already have the data and the tools. What’s missing is will.
It’s Not Too Late
Citizens can stop treating waterways as trash bins. Local councils must enforce building laws. State governments can invest in early warning systems and evacuation shelters. Youth groups can lead community cleanups and share verified alerts on social media.
Emergency preparedness is everyone’s job, not just for the federal agencies. Floods don’t check party affiliations or bank balances. When the water rises, it rises for all of us.
If we can predict it, we can prevent it.
We know when the rain will come. We even know where it will fall. The question now is: will we act, or keep mourning what could have been prevented?
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