When Sheikh Ahmed Gumi declared that Nigeria cannot defeat Boko Haram even with American military help and urged the Federal Government (FG) to negotiate instead, he triggered more than a policy debate, he touched a nerve.
You see, Sheikh Ahmed Gumi, for those who don’t now about him, has a reputation for being a middleman between governments and terrorists. He helps governments negotiate with terrorists, then tells the governments how much should be paid for kidnapped victims to be released.
It seems Gumi is scaling his business. He’s no longer dealing with just kidnappers now, he wants to offer his “professional services” for use in full-on terrorism. So now not only will Boko Haram be paid to release hostages, they’ll now be paid to stop pillaging, bombing and killing. Who’d be his client this time? Why, the Federal Government, of course.
So is Gumi offering genuine advice born of experience, or is he just another vendor hawking his services in a system that remains broken?
Negotiation: Is There Even Merit To It?
First, there are reasons why many see merit in negotiation-based solutions.
Gumi is known for having access to bandit leaders and terror-networks in northern Nigeria. In 2021, he claimed many Boko Haram commanders were “willing to surrender”, which suggests he may hold some credibility among parts of the conflict ecosystem.
The war against Boko Haram, even with military advantages, has stretched into years, and unnecessarily so. In April 2025, the governor of Borno said Boko Haram was making gains again.This is despite Buhari saying Nigeria had won against the terrorist outfit.
From this perspective, negotiation is seen not as giving in, but as a way to combine dialogue, disarmament and reintegration with military pressure.
Therefore, if you believe the only alternative to endless warfare is hybrid strategies, then Gumi’s call for dialogue sounds reasonable. It might even be required.
The Business-Pitch Angle: Incentives Matter
If I sell MTN routers, you can expect me to enter any office and convince them that Airtel, Glo and 9mobile are useless networks. I won’t stop there, of course. I would then tell them – matter-of-factly – that MTN is their best bet at stable internet. If it works, I can make quite a number of sales on a hot Tuesday afternoon. If. It. Works.
Gumi’s stance also raises serious questions. First of all, it’s convenient that he argues that negotiation is the way forward. At the same time, he is already engaged in negotiation work with terrorists and bandits. Who benefits when talk is the fallback? The negotiator.
There’s also the glaring conflict of interest. Put it this way: When someone proposes negotiation instead of military solution, and they also offer their services for negotiation, the line between altruism and business becomes blurred. Hell, it disappears.
By telling the government that “military cannot win”, the emphasis shifts from building institutional capacity to outsourcing negotiation. Outsourcing, in turn, creates dependency, and arguably reduces pressure on the state to act decisively.
Meanwhile, the same groups Gumi says should be negotiated with continue killing civilians, abducting children and creating terror. The fact that talk is elevated may enable more losses while we wait for rounds of negotiation.
You only need to look to see why no one is interested in what Gumi has to say about how terrorism should be solved.
Is Boko Haram Undefeatable?
The most frustrating part of Gumi’s statement is that he raises the status of Boko Haram to the level of some insurmountable problem. The sheikh said the US Army cannot defeat the Boko Haram, but Nigeria doesn’t even need the US Army to defeat this terrorist outfit.
Boko Haram often records and uploads videos to video streaming platforms. Some users have said they even upload videos to TikTok. There’s a “Sambisa forest” joke going around, except it’s not a joke. We know they’re there. They aren’t difficult to find. Finding a large group of people in remote or deserted areas is not difficult, and certainly not for the Nigeria Army.
Gumi intentionally talked about Boko Haram in a way that’d make them sound like more than what they are, so that the idea of negotiating with the terrorists would sound appealing. If it works, we’d know just how incapable the Federal Government is.
Time Is Not on Our Side
Meanwhile Boko Haram and its offspring remain active. On-the-ground incidents and fresh attacks continue to tear communities apart. According to Reuters in April 2025, Boko Haram has renewed attacks and kidnappings in Borno state, signalling a resurgence despite years of effort.
If action is delayed in favour of talk, the carnage doesn’t pause. Every day communities wait is another day lives are lost, homes destroyed and trust in the state eroded.
The billion dollar question for Gumi is this: When do you stop talking and start saving lives? Because for many victims, the gap between kidnapping and rescue is measured in months, not negotiation schedules.
Nigeria’s Dilemma: Military, Negotiation or Both?
If you believe military action alone can end Boko Haram, there are repeated setbacks that tell you there’s more at play. Soldiers have complained about being told not to engage. Soldiers have also mentioned not being well-equipped compared to the menace they’re battling.
Hence, the question may be “how do we integrate negotiation into a robust security strategy?”
However, when a prominent negotiator steps into the spotlight arguing the military is useless and he holds the keys to talk, we have to ask whether the state is outsourcing its job.
What Should The Federal Government Do?
The U.S. Government is famous for saying they do not negotiate with terrorists. There’s a reason too. However, even the U.S. sees the value in human lives, and always tries to get the hostages out safe. This sometimes involves some negotiation, but they often do it from a position of strength.
They find the terrorists, and give them the option of agreeing to a deal while they can, or else. The U.S. doesn’t relax while terrorists run rampant in the name of not negotiating with them. Nigeria should find these terrorists, and show them they cannot hide. Terrorists in NIgeria are bold, and the Federal Government is to be blamed for that.
Conclusion
Yes, the war is complicated and yes, negotiation may have a role to play. But when that argument intersects with the fact that someone stands to gain as negotiator, the optics shift. When a negotiator says the US Army – with a defense budget of more than $1 billion – cannot defeat Boko Haram, there’s a dishonesty that needs to be factored in.
If Nigeria is serious about ending Boko Haram’s reign, it must prioritise security, like the U.S. does. Funding must be put into the Army, and they have to be provided with the best weapons on offer. Otherwise, the victims will continue waiting, and the deal-makers will keep getting paid.
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