No More Substitutes: The Vanishing of Affordable Alternatives in Nigeria’s Economy

Once upon a time in Nigeria, when life showed you pepper, you turned it into pepper soup. If imported rice was moving mad, you’d swerve and hit up that sweet ofada. If turkey wings were suddenly flexing their price tag, you’d enter market and hug smoked panla with confidence. Life was hard, yes, but at least it came with affordable detours.

Fast forward to 2025: even detours now come with toll gates.

The Great Disappearing Act

Nigeria used to run on Plan B economics. That was our survival strategy. When one essential item priced itself out of reach, a cheaper local version stepped in like a faithful backup dancer. But today, the substitutes have vanished — or worse, they’ve become just as expensive as the originals they were replacing.

Let’s talk real life:

• Rice: Once the international price of imported rice started dancing shaku-shaku, we turned to local rice. But now? Local rice is doing azonto on its own. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of 1kg of local rice in March 2024 was ₦1,173 up by 134% compared to the same time in 2023. Right now, when you go to the market, it seems like the rice looks at you in contempt, while asking, “You sure say you belong here?”
• 
  Cooking Oil: Back then, if Kings vegetable oil was flexing too much, you’d run to bulk palm oil sellers or those refill stations that cart the “vegetable oil” around in yellow and white jerrycans. These days, even red oil is blushing with pride a 5-litre keg that used to be ₦2,500 is now over ₦12,000 in some states.
  
• Garri: Ah. Garri. Our final bus stop. The ultimate fallback food. Even garri has joined the VIP section. Once a working-class hero, garri now requires a salary negotiation. In 2020, a 50kg bag was around ₦6,000; today, it’s clocking ₦30,000 and above, depending on the region. It’s no longer a student’s best friend. It’s a luxury commodity.
  
• Kerosene & Firewood: Yes, people still use them. But even firewood sellers now calculate their price using exchange rate. Kerosene is selling for over ₦1,200 per litre in urban areas. That’s if you’re lucky to find it at all.
  
• Protein Wahala: Forget chicken and beef, even the once-reliable Ponmo and crayfish are now flexing. A small paint bucket of crayfish can cost ₦15,000–₦18,000. This used to go for N5,000 to N7,500. As for Pomo, one would think it now attends private school with the way it’s priced.

Why This Is Happening

A few key reasons are fuelling this wahala:

1. Inflation: According to Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s inflation hit 33.2% in March 2024, with food inflation alone soaring to 40.1%. While this data was criticized in various quarters as being dishonest, and misrepresenting the actual problem on ground, it also showed how the purchasing power of the average Nigerian had been badly depleted. To put this in simpler terms, it means your ₦5,000 can now barely manage breakfast.
   
2. FX Scarcity: With the naira playing limbo against the dollar, imports (and even local production reliant on foreign components) are suffering. As of April 2025, $1 = ₦1,400 officially and ₦1,600–₦1,750 in the black market. Even imported Maggi na foreign currency now. This over reliance on the dollar became a major cause of inflation in Nigeria.
   
3. The Customs Factor: Another major ingredient in this economic pepper soup is customs duties, or more accurately, how they’re calculated. The Nigerian Customs Service (NCS) has been pricing import duties in dollars, and if you want to pay in naira, you must use the black-market rate. Yes, you read that right. While most customs agencies around the world focus on regulation and trade facilitation, our own Customs has turned into a revenue-generating machine, complete with quarterly targets like it’s a fintech startup chasing Series A.
   
   To put it in perspective, the NCS reported a jaw-dropping ₦1.65 trillion in revenue in just Q1 of 2025, smashing their ₦106 billion target like it was a piñata. But the real question is: at whose expense? That “achievement” comes with a price. Unfortunately, that price is passed down to the average Nigerian who ends up paying more for everything: from imported machinery to a simple tin of milk.

4. Fuel Subsidy Removal & Logistics Costs: Transportation of goods across states has become a budget on its own. If you’re wondering why tomatoes from Jos now feel like they flew business class to Lagos, that’s why.
   
5. Security Issues: Farmers can’t go to farms because of banditry and communal clashes. If they can’t farm, we can’t eat. At least not affordably.

Na Who We Go Blame?

This is the part where everyone points fingers. At government, traders, witches in the village. But the truth is, there’s a systemic collapse of safety nets. We’re not just dealing with inflation; we’re witnessing the erosion of coping mechanisms. And when people can’t even afford the cheap alternative, na hunger go win election.

So, What’s the Way Forward?

This isn’t a pity party. It’s a wake-up call.

• For young Nigerians, it’s time to ask tough questions: Why do we still import what we can grow? Why are farmers broke and consumers starving?
• For policymakers, it’s time to move beyond press briefings and address the root causes. Insecurity, infrastructure, poor agricultural funding, and unstable FX policies.
• For brands and influencers, stop pushing vibe-driven content in a hunger economy. Talk real talk. People are tired of being entertained while they’re starving.

In conclusion: Its Okay To Panic

Nigeria’s economic decline isn’t just a matter of GDP, it’s visible in our plates, our markets, and our daily decisions. The end of substitutes means the end of choice. And when people have no choice, society breaks down.

But as usual, Nigerians go still find joke inside. Because if we don’t laugh, we’ll cry, and even pure water for crying now costs ₦50.

What’s that one substitute you used to rely on that has now turned its back on you? Share your heartbreak in the comments. Let’s mourn together.