Nigeria is set to face Lesotho tomorrow in the 9th FIFA World Cup Qualifiers match, and this time, a loss guarantees a swift death to the Super Eagles World Cup dreams. With just 11 points, Eric Chelle’s men sit third in the Qualifying table with two games left. At this point, the chances of qualification are already quite low, but Chelle’s men can help themselves, and it starts with a resounding victory against Lesotho on Friday.

Why is a Win so Important?

Other than the obvious answer of duh! It’s crucial that Nigeria wins this, as the two teams above her (Benin Republic and South Africa) are also playing separate games. These games, most importantly, are very winnable for them, well, for South Africa anyway. You see, Benin is playing against Rwanda, but while the two teams are separated in 1st and 4th place respectively, they were much closer in the table as of two weeks ago. 

FIFA punished South Africa for fielding an ineligible player, losing three points. This points slash saw it drop from first to second in the table. It also put a 3-0 loss on Hugo Broos’ record, which also reduced his team’s goal difference. The result of this was Benin going top of the table. In reality, Benin and Rwanda are more evenly matched than the table suggests. 

South Africa – on the other hand – is playing against Zimbabwe, which is likely to be a victory. This means that the Super Eagles are going to remain in third place if neither South Africa nor Benin drops points, even if they win. This would put Chelle’s men one leg out of the World Cup race.

A Win is a Win but not a Win

The popular football twitter slang “A win is a win is a win” does not really apply here, that’s why Nigeria should not only aim for a victory, but an emphatic one. This is because while a win gives the Super Eagles a fighting chance, a more emphatic victory would boost our goal difference, which puts us in a very good spot indeed. With a much better goal difference, Nigeria can take advantage of dropped points from those above them. 

With just a goal difference of +2, Nigeria winning by just one goal would make it difficult to take advantage of slipups.

What Happened the Last Time These Two Sides Met?

Nigeria’s last match against Lesotho was also in this competition, two years ago. The Eagles were managed by Jose Peseiro at the time, and they fought to leave the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium with just one point. In fact, it was nearly a loss, as the Eagles went behind in the 56th minute to Motomwelo Mkwanazi’s goal. We needed an equalizer, and it came from centerback Semi Ajayi, in the 67th. The match remained that way till the end.

Nigeria was less than impressive in that game too, and the Super Eagles had many of their key players available and playing. Big names like Kelechi Iheanacho, Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi, Frank Onyeka, and Victor Boniface. Still, Nigeria couldn’t take maximum points.

New Manager Means Things Should Be Better Now, Right?

Right? Well…not quite. Since that match, Nigeria has gathered just two wins from seven games, both against Rwanda. Those wins came under different managers too. The Super Eagles have been appalling in this competition, and some fans are saying Nigeria doesn’t even deserve to be at the World Cup. 

At first it sounds pessimistic, but think about it: if Nigeria has struggled this much against Rwanda, Lesotho, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Benin Republic, how will they fare against Spain, Italy, Germany, England, and Portugal? And those aren’t even the only countries that can embarrass the Giant of Africa on the global stage.

Conclusion: Can’t Beat Lesotho? Then You Don’t Deserve a World Cup place

Lesotho and Nigeria both have just two wins from the right games played so far, which is an issue in and of itself. Nigeria should not be matching Lesotho in statistics like this, yet here we are. Leslie Notsi’s men, though, have conceded three more goals than the Super Eagles, enough to leave them with a -3 goal difference. 

Nigeria vs Lesotho essentially comes down to this: if the Super Eagles cannot win comfortably against this Lesotho side, we do not deserve to hold a World Cup ticket in our hands.

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