While Premier League fans were groaning in irritation as their teams were getting flogged on Saturday, President Bola Tinubu was sacking and replacing all his Service Chiefs, seemingly out of nowhere. It was later that the rumours of a coup broke out, and then it all began to make sense.
These suspicions didn’t just start, and in fact, the President is likely not yet through with the changes he’s making in the security sector. However, there’s reason to believe, in this case, that there’s no smoke without fire.
Coup? What Coup?
Some claim that there was no attempted coup, and it’s all just some no-gooders trying to spin a routine set of sackings and appointments into a narrative. This would have made sense, if the four key people in charge of the nation’s security didn’t all just lose their jobs in the blink of an eye.
You see, in 2021, then-President Muhammadu Buhari also changed all the service chiefs. It was not as strange then, mainly because the insecurity was glaring (it still is), and most importantly, Buhari , actually pretended to care about security.
President Tinubu has consistently spoken as though he thinks the service chiefs are doing a satisfactory job. He has called for some security situations to be “handled” from time to time, but nothing too strong. Tinubu’s announcement genuinely came as a shock. It gets even more interesting though.
Some of the service chiefs retained their roles, and believe it or not, some got promoted. The Chief of Defense Intelligence, Major-General E.A.P Undiendeye, retained his position. Emmanuel Ogalla, the former Chief of Naval Staff was removed for Real Admiral I. Abbas. Former Air Chief Hassan Abubakar was replaced by Air Vice Marshall S. K. Aneke.
General Christopher Musa, the former Chief of Defense Staff, who all the above roles answer to, was sacked. His replacement? The Former Army chief Major-General Olufemi Oloyede. Major General Waidi Shaibu becomes the new Army Chief.
Why is this interesting? Think about it, at a time when insecurity, especially in the North and Middle belt, the highest ranking official in the Nigerian Army is being…promoted. This is why this doesn’t look routine. Something definitely happened, but we may never get the full details.
What Would Have Been the Effect?
Whoever led this coup attempt was clearly not thinking right, and for several reasons. We’d touch on just one. A violent removal of a sitting democratic president would be bad enough. However, with the current tribal tensions in Nigeria, especially Lagos, the aftermath would have been almost impossible to contain.
Everyone has expressed their dissatisfaction at the President, and rightly so. You see various arguments on X and other social media channels on whether Tinubu has been horrendous at his job. Some have argued that dislike for him is “purely” tribal. A successful coup will lead to some ethnic groups being targeted.
Bola Tinubu, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour and Tribalism in Nigeria
This would be the perfect time to tie this to Lagos State. In the weeks and months leading up to the 2023 Lagos Governorship Election, many Lagosians expressed disinterest in the candidacy of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour. Much of it was down to his mother being Igbo. This led to many arguments, and tensions spiked. These tensions didn’t stop in online arguments, it nearly drove couples apart. Yes, actual married couples.
Tinubu was Governor of Lagos for eight years, so Lagosians’ support for him as President is much stronger. With many Igbo people in Lagos, a violent coup that removes him would put a target on their backs. Those who target them won’t even consider if Igbo people had anything at all to do with it.
A Coup Would Do More Harm Than Good
No one is disputing the competency of Tinubu. Well…that’s not particularly true, but most people would rather not have Tinubu as president, and that’s factual. However, a coup would cause a lot more problems, and solve none of the ones Nigerians are facing now.
Whoever plotted this coup did not think about it well, otherwise, they wouldn’t even have made the move in the first place. The best time to make the decision on Tinubu being president was in February 2023 when we all cast our vote. The next best time is in 2027 when we get a chance to install another president. There’s no “I’ve changed my mind. I don’t want again” in between.
Tinubu hopes to have cleaned house by replacing the service chiefs, but those former chiefs are likely to still have loyalists in there. The security agencies should be alert, as tensions are high all over the country, and that comes with its own risks.
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